NATIONAL NEWS - Forecasters warn of a strong, or even super El Nino weather pattern, which may herald a drought, to follow the current freezing winter, with cold fronts expected to develop into August.
SA Weather Service forecaster Lehlohonolo Thobela says a second cold front is heading to the Western Cape, but it isn’t expected to affect the interior after a weekend of cold, wet weather.
Strong cold fronts will persist into August
“Temperatures are expected to improve and normalise to what is usual for winter in the central and eastern parts of the country,” he said.
Vox Weather meteorologist Annette Botha said though many people refer to 21 June as the start of winter, meteorologists define winter differently.
“Yes, 21 June marks the winter solstice, which is the shortest day and longest night of the year. However, a meteorological winter always begins on 1 June and ends on 31 August,” Botha said.
“We use full calendar months because it aligns much better with long-term climate records and makes it easier to compare temperatures, rainfall and weather patterns from year to year.”
SA deep into winter
Botha added SA is deep into winter and the public has started to feel it.
“Although we had a stormy and icy end to autumn, the start of winter has been relatively calm compared to the past few years.
“We’ve seen fewer significant cold fronts affecting the country, but winter is far from over.
“Historically, some of SA’s strongest cold fronts occur in late June, July and even August, so we are still expecting several more impactful systems capable of bringing widespread rain, strong winds, mountain snow and icy conditions,” she said.
Looking further ahead into the remainder of winter and towards spring and summer, Botha said there was still uncertainty.
El Niño possibly strengthening
“Although National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially declared El Nino conditions earlier this year, there has been increasing discussion about whether this event could strengthen into a strong, or even super El Nino later in 2026 and into 2027,” she added.
“The El Nino does not automatically mean drought for South Africa.
“Every event is different and its impacts depend on its strength, timing and interaction with other climate drivers.
“The most significant impacts are typically felt over South Africa’s summer rain region, while the Western Cape’s winter rain region is generally far less affected,” Botha said.
“The current winter forecast remains largely unchanged, regardless of El Nino, as its influence is generally much greater during the spring and summer months.”
Too early to tell impact on summer
Botha said it was simply too early to tell what the impacts will be for summer.
Agricultural Business Chamber of SA chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said people and organisations have been warning of a drought in the summer of 2026- 27, with a stronger El Nino, which could bring about difficulty for farmers.
“The 2025-26 production season was excellent from an output perspective because we received great rain and record maize and soya crop harvests.”
Sihlobo said South Africa had a longer rainy season, with parts of the interior experiencing rain until the first week of the last month, which could damage crops.
But he added the soil and moisture will help at the start of the next season until the first rains.
Article: Caxton publication, The Citizen
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