GEORGE NEWS - Speaking at the Garden Route Environmental Forum (Gref)'s Climate Change Indaba at Nelson Mandela University on 27 June, Western Cape disaster management chief Colin Deiner pointed to "major inevitable and irreversible" climate changes warned about in a 2021 report of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The IPCC's sixth assessment report (AR6) indicated that Africa is in a precarious position with increased adverse impacts from climate change on water security, food and crop production, fisheries, infrastructure as well as health and well-being. 

Deiner aired concern over the unpreparedness of communities and authorities to respond to severe weather events that have left millions in Africa displaced and caused thousands of deaths in the past five years. Human conflicts worsened the situation.

"You can no longer refer to a previous incident because they are so frequent," said Deiner. Such events have a regional impact and preparedness is critical.

The Western Cape not only has a disaster operations directorate that manages response and preparedness, but it is the only province with a risk reduction directorate. "A lot of our focus should be on risk reduction; unfortunately we do not have much time to do it."

In the Western Cape, between June 2023 and June 2024, they have had to cope with four flooding events, multiple major fires, a regional electricity blackout in Central Karoo caused by weather, and the George building collapse. "We used to have one, maybe two, major events in a year; we are now halfway through the year and we are already sitting on about five or six."

He said the likelihood of droughts and hotter weather is increasing. According to AR6, by 2030 droughts in the Garden Route will be 11% more likely and there will be a 4% decrease in total rainfall compared with 1995. Similar or worse scenarios are predicted for other parts of the province.

An example of the cost impact of more frequent natural disasters is disaster management's budget for aerial support to district municipalities and the Metro. It was about R13m a year. This year it went up to R19m and again to R21m as they have had to ask for more funding as the events unfolded.

Reducing risk in the Western Cape

Deiner pointed out various ways in which the Western Cape Government (WCG) is working to reduce climate risk in accordance with legislation that addresses adaptation, early warning mechanisms, disaster management plans, spatial resilience and greenhouse gas emissions.

The WCG has included climate change in its whole enterprise risk management system, and climate change risk reduction must form part of all performance plans.

It has had engagements with Treasury specifically focused on climate change during which each department had to provide its climate change plans and working procedures.

The Western Cape Ecological Infrastructure Investment Framework (EIIF) is also currently determining the most beneficial interventions for resource security and climate resilience, environmental restoration as a severe weather buffer, and reducing risk in the wild and urban interface, specifically fire risk. Coastal management is addressed in the Western Cape Coastal Management Programme and Estuary Management Plan.

Furthermore, the province's disaster risk profile is continuously being updated and the energy security risk is being unpacked in the Growth for Jobs programme (G4J).

"Our climate change response strategy includes the vision of a net zero emissions and climate resilient province by 2050, built on an equitable and inclusive economy and a society that thrives despite the shocks and stresses posed by climate change."

The plan has 20 response programmes that identify relevant institutional responsibilities and what programmes are being pursued to achieve the target.

Various other speakers provided their inputs on what is being done on ground level to build resilience amid a changing climate, which was the theme of the event. It is held annually by Gref.

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