GARDEN ROUTE | KAROO NEWS - The king-size testbed which kicked off on 1 October 2024 will ramp up the work done by the Weather and Climate Services for Africa (WISER) Early Warnings for Southern Africa (EWSA) project in South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia, to improve the forecasting ability of meteorologists and disseminate relevant and potentially life-saving weather information to communities. 

Testbeds are a proven way of testing methodologies in real-life scenarios with measurable impact and in collaboration with the end users. 

Under the WISER programme led by the UK Met Office, commissioned by the UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and supported by UK aid from the British people, the WISER EWSA international consortium has been working in this region since mid-2023 to co-produce novel early warning alerts for thunderstorms (known as ‘nowcasts’) that are accessible and useful to communities at risk and those tasked with disaster risk reduction. 

Early warnings about severe weather events, for example, heavy rain and thunderstorms, can help communities prepare in a way that saves lives. 

Partners include the weather offices and disaster risk reduction offices in the three countries as well as the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom (UK), the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Kulima Integrated Development Solutions, Tyrsky Consulting, the Finnish Meteorological Institute, and the World Weather Research Programme of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 

WISER EWSA supports the United Nations’ Early Warning for All (EW4All) initiative, led by the WMO, which aims to ensure that every person on Earth is protected by early warning systems by 2027. Inclusivity is a strong thread throughout the project. 

Several community members work with the researchers and forecasters, ensuring tailor-made and relevant solutions. People with disabilities and their representative organisations are also included and help to inform the best way of communicating weather information. 

South African Weather Service (SAWS) Chief Executive Officer, Mr Ishaam Abader, comments: “South Africa must scale up its early warning systems. SAWS’s development of early warning systems is an important focus area. Our contribution to and partnership with WISER EWSA aligns with the international EW4All initiative. Early warning dissemination and communication becomes particularly important considering the complexities of South Africa’s 12 official languages.

“We are working with local partners but also as part of the WISER EWSA project to close the gap between disseminating accessible weather information and our most rural areas. To this end, we are, among others, engaging with the International Telecommunication Union and locally with GSM operators. 

“Our early warning system endeavours are supported by the Impact-based Severe Weather Warning System. This introduced a welcome shift from traditional weather prediction to include the potential impact on people’s lives and property of weather events. It assists decision-makers in the disaster response process as well as other sectors, such as aviation and maritime.”

Early warnings and nowcasting can help people prepare for extreme weather conditions and make informed decisions to protect themselves and their families. 

This is especially important for communities that are already vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. 

Nowcasting enables weather forecasters to monitor the development of the intensity of thunderstorms and provide any warnings about the expected path within the next two hours by collaborating with other populations, including disadvantaged groups. 

Prof Douglas Parker from the University of Leeds and Principal Investigator for the project, adds, “The king-size testbed that starts on 1 October is an expansion of the original project plan. Initially, the project would have implemented only two intensive testbeds of two weeks each over the project’s 30-month lifespan. 

“However after the successful completion of the first testbed in January/February 2024 in Zambia with satellite testbeds in Mozambique and South Africa, our communities requested an extended testbed to ensure they have early warning of thunderstorms throughout the rainy season. Our in-country partners were supportive as this gives more opportunity for testing meteorological and observational models, interpreting the information in a practical manner that is accessible, and testing the best way to get this timeously into the hands of the disaster risk reduction organisations and affected communities. The feedback we will get from our user communities over this extended testbed will give us much more opportunity to improve every procedure, and to learn how to make the processes sustainable beyond the end of the project.” 

Hence, the ‘king-size’ testbed was born and will run throughout the countries’ customary rainy seasons from October to April 2025. 

The second intensive two-week-long testbed will still be implemented in January/February 2025 with dedicated staff capacity 24 hours a day. 

For this intensive testbed, Mozambique will take the lead with South Africa and Zambia as satellites. Both will involve real-time testing of forecasting and nowcasting with community feedback on the correctness and accessibility of the message, allowing for constant improvement. 

During a testbed preparatory meeting in Katlehong, Gauteng, in August 2024, members of the community hub shared how the unpredictable weather influences inhabitants. 

Two representatives related, “It might be cold in the morning, very hot later, and raining even later. It helps with our planning to know what the weather might be like. Also, when there is flooding, the kids are left stranded or they go home without supervision. If we know there is a chance of flooding, we can prepare. We must also teach people not to throw things in the drains because the water has nowhere to flow, adding to the flooding risk.” 

Community representatives and disaster risk reduction organisations also highlighted the real risk of cholera outbreaks during flooding and other health risks. 

Public document Document Reference: CS-CMS-LETT-003 Page 3 of 4 SAWS forecasting lead on the project, Nico Kroese, concludes, “If we think about 2023 being reported as the hottest year since the gathering of weather data, and we look at the kind of weather we’ve already seen this year – for example last week’s extreme cold and snow in large parts of South Africa – we cannot doubt the relevance and necessity of early warning systems. It goes beyond just having the information. 

“The dissemination of accessible and understandable information is an intricate part of disaster reduction. This is what the WISER EWSA project and its bigger cousin, EW4All, are about. The king-size testbed over the next several months will give us valuable insights into improving our information-gathering methods and how best to get the potentially life-saving information to those who need it most. A highlight is that we are doing this with our partners and colleagues in Zambia and Mozambique, sharing the benefits regionally."

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