ENVIRONMENT - Environmental Hydrogeologist Ritchie Morris of Karatini Farm in the Barrington area, just north of Sedgefield, has been steadfastly recording the rainfall in the central Karatara River catchment area in Elandskraal since the start of 2016.
In the previous three months just 54 mm was measured in the area - 27 mm in July, 7 mm in August and 20 mm in September.
The rainfall events in September comprised 2 mm, 2mm, 5mm, 6mm, and 5 mm. Morris says these low rainfall events were followed by fairly windy conditions, which dry-out the wetting that occurred.
He says for 2025 to get to the average rainfall of the last nine years, at least 240 mm need to fall in the last three months of the year.
Low rainfall in region
Speaking at a media briefing hosted by the National Press Club on Tuesday 30 September, Dr Christien Engelbrecht, a meteorologist at SAWS, said rainfall and dam levels in the George area are significantly lower than last year.
She added that, unlike most of the country, the seasonal prediction for good rainfall in the entire Southern Cape is inconclusive, meaning residents could have cause for concern.
At the Karawater Karatara River causeway there is hardly any movement. Photo: Ritchie Morris
Morris shared his insightful rainfall figures and graphs with Group Editors and also expressed grave concern about the alien invasive trees strangling the Karatara River in the pass.
He notes that every river has what is called ‘the resource’, the allocation of flow that must be allowed for ecological functioning of the river.
"Off-takes, or abstraction, should be under either a Schedule 1 general authorisation, or a full water use license. If its water abstraction for commercial use then usually a full water use license is required.
"The Karatara River is heavily infested with aliens in its water course. This is most likely taking a huge percentage of the available flow."
The red dotted line in the bar graph above is the average for all years at 633 mm/annum. Thus it can be seen that for 2025 we are, as at end September, 240 mm below the average. So for October, November and December 2025, we would need at least 80 mm of rain each month to reach the longer term average.
Video:
This bar graph compares the monthly rainfall for 2022 to 2025 for May, June, July, August and September.
This line graph compares the monthly rainfall for 2022 to 2025 for May, June, July, August and September. The black dotted line is the 2025 monthly rainfall data - very low compared to the other three years.
Morris' key deductions
- August and September 2025 have had very little rain.
- The earth is hard/dry and the forest understory (litter zone) is very dry.
- There has been a noticeable low flow in the Karatara River, with side streams (non-perennial) having virtually no flow.
Morris says that for future planning it will be best to err on the side of caution and not rely too much on surface water supplies like storage dams and river off-takes as a sole source of domestic or other supply.
"Conjunctive water supply sources will need to be considered together with demand side management," he says.
In 2015 the Karatara River burst its banks in welcome to Spring on 1 September. Today, 10 years later, the low flow of the river is cause for concern. Photo: Fran Kirsten.
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