Latest poll on forthcoming elections

ELECTION NEWS - The latest poll by the Institute for Race Relations released today indicates that a lower voter turnout in Wednesday's election may benefit a number of political parties.

Furthermore, the poll results seem to indicate that both Gauteng and KwaZulu/Natal may be hung provinces unless there is a late surge of voter support in favour of the ANC.

The IRR poll found that nationally the ANC could receive 53% of the vote, with the DA 24% and the EFF could bolster their tally to 14%.In line with the IRR objective to become an authority on political market research, the institute has undertaken a fifth survey of the electoral landscape to supplement previous surveys carried out in September 2018, December 2018, February 2019 and April 2019.

The poll is conducted into voter preferences, attitudes and the South African political landscape.

"Our May election poll was in the field between 27 April and 4 May," says Gareth van Onselen, IRR head of Politics and Governance.

"This poll came out of the field with four days of the election period still to go, a time during which there will likely be some small, last minute movement, typically towards bigger parties," Van Onselen stressed.

The poll was structured as a tracking one, using a five-day moving average and it covered the national ballot, as well as the provincial ballot in Gauteng, the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.

Poll results
As of 4 May, the last day on which the IRR tracking poll ran, the results suggest the following:

•This is the most fluid national election to date, in particular with regards to the ANC and EFF, who have traded support one way or another among around five to eight percent of black voters since September.

•The ANC could get less than 55%, depending on the last four days, the turnout and taking into account the margin of error.

•Gauteng is set to be hung, barring a last-minute surge from the ANC.

•The DA should hold the Western Cape relatively comfortably, despite its recent difficulties in the province.

•KwaZulu-Natal could be hung, depending on a range of factors, including a last-minute ANC surge, turnout and taking into account the margin of error.

•The DA is marginally up among black voters, but down among white voters, from 2014. The ANC is significantly down among coloured voters from 2014.

•The EFF is up significantly, relative to 2014. This will set up an interesting dynamic between that party and the ANC over the next five years, for which, as of 4 May, it appears Gauteng will be the first test.

Not a prediction
Van Onselen stressed that the survey is not a prediction, but rather a snapshot in time of the electoral market between 27 April and 4 May.

"It is not possible to precisely predict the election result. We are, however, confident our data is accurate for the period under review.

"Thus, all this survey can tell you is the nature of the electoral market in the week preceding the election, and suggest where some of the trend lines are headed, with four days to go until the election.

"As you will see, there is some fluidity in the market, and the last few days will likely see some small movement. If history is a guide, it will be towards the bigger parties. From these numbers, anyone can draw a prediction, should they wish.

"We leave the art of prediction up to you, the public."

Van Onselen said the most valuable aspect of any poll is its ability to identify trends and patterns, particularly over time.

Western Cape
The poll indicates that support for the DA increased dramatically over the course of the past week, from 54% on a 76% voter turnout on Saturday to 62% on Wednesday, a level it maintained until Friday, when it dropped to 57% on a 71.7% voter turnout. In doing so, the DA squeezed support for the ACDP down from 7% on lower voter turnout to Saturday, where it has remained.

Support for the ANC in the province, the results report states, has declined dramatically, down from 28% in April to 21% on a 71.1% voter turnout on the final Saturday.

Support for the EFF has remained relatively stable at around 7% on lower voter turnout, with some small drop-off in the final two days of the research, to end at 5% on a 71.1% voter turnout.

"Worth noting is the rise of the FF Plus on the final day of the track, when it came in at 4.3% and 5% on a 71.1% turnout. Before the final day, it did not breach 1%.

The ANC, throughout the week and on every voter turnout scenario across all seven polling days operated in a band between 18% and 30%, a significantly large band, indicative of its loss in support, the research report states.

Typically, it has enjoyed less support - by one or two percentage points - as the turnout level drops, suggesting a lower turnout hinders the ANC in the Western Cape.

The poll results indicates that the DA, throughout the week on every turnout across all seven polling days operated in a band between 46% and 62%, a significantly large band, indicative, the IRR says, of its growth in support. "Typically it has enjoyed more support - by one or two percentage points - as the turnout levels drops, suggesting the lower turnout helps the DA in the Western Cape."

For the same period, the EFF, on every voter turnout scenario operated in a band between 2% and 10%. Typically, it has enjoyed more support - by one of two percentage points - as the turnout level drops, suggesting a lower turnout helps the EFF in the province, but off a low base.

The ACDP, the research report states, operated in a band between 1.8% and 8% for the same period. Typically, it has enjoyed more support - by one or two percentage points - as the voter turnout level drops, suggesting that lower turnout helps the ACDP, albeit off a very low base.

The 2019 election is an opportunity for voters to make their mark for both the provincial and national government.