Covid cases in Garden Route double in a week

GARDEN ROUTE NEWS - The number of active Covid-19 infections in the Garden Route has more than doubled in little less than a week, from 1 777 on Tuesday 14 December to 4 107 on Monday 20 December.

Active cases in George increased from 814 to 1 876. Two deaths were recorded in the district - one in George and one in Mossel Bay.

Hospital admissions at George Regional Hospital rose from 1 on Tuesday last week to 31 on Monday 20 December.

Hospitalisations in the other public Garden Route hospitals are as follows:

Riversdale Hospital 3
Mossel Bay Hospital 3
Uniondale Hospital 0
Harry Comay 0
Knysna Hospital 5
Ladismith Hospital 0
Oudtshoorn Hospital 20 (up from two a week ago)

There are no patients in the high care units. Mediclinic George had 12 Covid patients as at 20 December, of whom two were in the intensive care unit.

Nursing manager Jeanita le Roux said of the 12 patients, four were vaccinated. None of the patients in the ICU were vaccinated.

The reproduction number has risen fast and is higher than early in the second and third waves.

Western Cape data indicates a widening gap between cases and hospitalisations. This trend began in the third wave, but is increasing in the fourth wave.

4th wave numbers surpassing previous waves

In a digital press conference on Wednesday 15 December, Western Cape Premier Alan Winde said they are expecting more cases in the week of 20 December than the seven-day moving average of the third-wave peak.

The reproduction number is over 1 and has risen quickly, surpassing that of the early stages of both the second and third waves.

According to data shared by the head of health in the Western Cape, Dr Keith Cloete, steep increases in the number of daily new cases are being recorded in the province. Cloete said preliminary evidence on the Omicron variant indicates a slower increase in hospitalisation, but robust research on this is being awaited.

Hospital admissions at the time of the conference were on average 65 per day and deaths about one per day.

Cloete said that there is no evidence to date that Omicron causes less severe disease in unvaccinated people without prior infection. "We are still seeing very sick patients in our hospitals."

The Garden Route's Covid statistics as at Monday 20 December as provided by the Western Cape Health Department.

National trend - high numbers, fewer hospital admissions

Nationally, the number of cases in the fourth wave has exceeded the peaks of the third, second and first waves.

The weekly average of new infections is more than 37/100 000 of the population, while the peak of the third wave was about 33/100 000, the second wave 32/100 000 and the first wave 21/100 000.

National Minister of Health Dr Joe Phaahla said on Friday 17 December that weekly average hospital admissions in the first two weeks of the fourth wave were significantly lower than the average admissions in the first two weeks of the third wave.

In the second week of the third wave, there was an average of 4 485 new cases per day and 888 hospitalisations, representing 19% of all Covid-19 cases that were hospitalised.

In the second week of the fourth wave, the average of new cases per day was 20 207 and 348 hospitalisations, which is 1,7% of all Covid-19 cases hospitalised. Although there is a rapid rise in hospitalisation, the majority of cases are mild.

In Gauteng, there is already a decrease in new cases recorded, and early indications suggest that the peak has been reached, but there is a rapid increase in the other provinces. Phaahla said the mildness of disease may not necessarily mean that the virus is less virulent, but may also be due to the significant vaccine coverage of over 60s (66%) and over 50s (61%) and a national adult coverage of 44%.

The National Institute for Communi-cable Diseases (NICD) reported at the weekend that KwaZulu-Natal has surpassed Gauteng in the number of new cases reported. By Monday 20 January, 29% of cases were being reported in KwaZulu-Natal, followed by Gauteng (22%) and the Western Cape (19%).