WESTERN CAPE NEWS - The Western Cape records on average more than 60 Covid-19 deaths per day as the peak of the pandemic in the province is approaching.

It has been predicted for end June, into July.

In an online briefing today (Thursday 25 June), Premier Alan Winde said the initial scenario planning indicated that the province would peak during this period, but they continue to check their data against this model and also have outside organisations reviewing the model, including the Actuarial Society of South Africa, the national modelling group and the province's own team of experts. 

Peak could last 3, 4 weeks

"We are still of the opinion that we are moving into that peak, which is now the last week of this month and moving into next month. It looks like it could last for longer than two weeks - maybe three or four weeks. We will continue to measure the data. It is not a perfect science and the makeup of our citizens would be different so we can't measure exactly the same as, say, another country that we would be measuring against."

He said the province is prepared and continues to prepare for the peak. "Some of our testing and triage facilities in rural areas are not in place, knowing that those rural areas might reach their peak later than perhaps the city or the hotspots we are working in at the moment. They continue monitoring that their health response is coping and making sure they are ready on each front - from testing to hospital beds and quarantine and isolation facilities, to personal protective equipment, continual engagements with the public as well as mass fatalities.

'Second wave'

"I sincerely hope that in the next few weeks we will see some of the numbers declining, and then we have to apply our minds to the next stage, which is what we are seeing in other parts of the world - getting a second wave, or is it going to be a longer peak or shorter peak. That is all going to come through the continual work with our data and our teams, questioning ourselves and measuring ourselves on a continuous basis and making sure that we don't get blasé, that as we open up more economy and schooling, we at the same time continually observe the rules of masks, social distancing, etc.

"It is about the health response, but also the citizens' response to make sure we flatten the curve."

Increasing testing capacity

Winde said the province is in the process of getting extra laboratories online through the private sector, as well as the province's universities to increase testing capacity.

Although the testing backlog in the province has been completely eradicated, priority testing remains in place, because "just as we have taken tests away from other provinces to get our backlog brought down, the same is happening now where tests are focused on some other provinces. This is an international problem due to test kits being in short supply."

He said they hope in the next few days, as updates become available from the Provincial Health Department, to be able to relook their strategy and decide to move beyond testing only frontline staff and patients, to also open up testing for those with comorbidities and the elderly. This gives much better accuracy in managing the pandemic.

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