GEORGE NEWS - South African motorists are preparing for another possible round of fuel price increases when new prices take effect on Wednesday 6 May, following sharp hikes in April.
Early industry indicators suggest continued upward pressure, although final figures will only be confirmed by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy shortly before implementation.
Early indications
Preliminary snapshots from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) show significant under-recoveries in the basic fuel price - an accounting measure indicating how much prices would need to rise to reflect global fuel costs and taxes. Large under-recoveries suggest sustained upward pressure, particularly for diesel, though these figures fluctuate daily and should not be interpreted as final fuel price adjustments.
Indicative fuel price pressures for May
The latest CEF data, dated 6 April, suggest diesel prices could increase by more than R13 per litre.
- CEF under-recovery data also point to petrol hikes exceeding R4.30 per litre.
- Petrol under-recoveries currently range between R4.30 and R4.70 per litre.
- Diesel under-recoveries stand at approximately R13.07 to R13.13 per litre.
- Illuminating paraffin under-recoveries have risen to around R10.70 per litre.
Key drivers of price pressure
Temporary fuel levy relief may end
The National Treasury introduced a temporary R3 per litre reduction in the general fuel levy to soften April’s fuel hike. The measure is currently scheduled to run until 5 May, unless extended by government.
Global crude prices and geopolitical tensions
Brent crude oil remains elevated amid Middle East tensions and supply concerns, increasing the cost of imported fuel and refined petroleum products.
Rand exchange rate weakness
A weaker rand against the US dollar raises the local currency cost of imported fuel.
Fuel tax structure
Domestic fuel prices remain influenced by the General Fuel Levy, Road Accident Fund levy, and Carbon Fuel Levy.
Critical dates for motorists
- 5 May: Scheduled end of temporary R3 levy relief
- Early May: Official fuel price announcement by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy
- 6 May: New fuel prices take effect at midnight.
While final fuel prices for May have not yet been determined, early data indicates continued upward pressure. However, official prices may differ materially from current under-recovery projections, depending on movements in oil prices, the exchange rate, and any government intervention before month-end.
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