Earlier this year, former M division head, Frank van Meel, remarked that while manual ‘boxes will remain part of its line-up based on demand, the move towards autonomous driving technology will eventually result in it falling by the wayside.
“From the emotional standpoint, a lot of customers say 'I don't care, I want to have one'. As long as we have these take rates on M2, but also the M3 and M4, we're going to offer manuals because we listen to our customers. If demand is so high, then why not fulfill it? The bad news is that if we one day have autonomous cars, then the manual cannot work anymore, so that would be, let's say, the natural end,” he told Australia’s caradvice.com.au at the time.
Speaking during the media day at the recent Los Angeles Auto, development boss, Klaus Fröhlich, stated that quicker shifting automatic transmissions, along with their ease of use and inherent sportiness, will result in manual transmissions disappearing soon.
“The pure engineering answer is, you're much faster with paddles and an automatic transmission. They're very precise and sporty. Especially on the Nurburgring, you are much better in control when you're not taking one hand away [to shift]. I think, in the overall portfolio, manuals will disappear,” Fröhlich told US publication Road and Track.
“Honestly, you have a problem with manuals. Because we have these turbocharged engines with 600 Nm of torque, to develop such a high-torque manual transmission for such a small volume isn't profitable at all. So I tried to prolong the lifetime of the manuals, but we can't invest in developing a new manual transmission. No transmission partner will do that with us. So we are evolving our existing manuals as long as possible”.
Referring to the M4, Fröhlich said that the next generation will possibly leave production in around 2027 or 2028, at which point the manual gearbox will die along with it.
“I think M4 should be the fortress of manual. So the last manual transmission which will die, it should die in an M4, as late as possible. That's my view. The successors [to the current M3 and M4] are all in the pipeline. And so my promise is, yes, there will be a manual in the successor to M4,”
His comments meanwhile appears to confirm that the all-new M3, due out next year, will in fact not be available with three-pedals despite a report last month suggesting that it will again be offered with it in addition to the dual-clutch automatic.
