GARDEN ROUTE NEWS - With a 95% increase in new Covid-19 cases in the Garden Route District and a steep rise countrywide, a top economist predicts that President Cyril Ramaphosa will extend the level 4 lockdown regulations on Sunday.
Hugo Pienaar, chief economist at the Bureau for Economic Research at the Stellenbosch University, says an extension is probably on the cards as health experts say the peak of the third wave has not been reached.
Speaking to Bruce Whitfield on The Money Show on Radio 702 on Monday 5 July, Pienaar said when adjusted level 4 was announced on 27 June, the seven-day rolling average of new daily coronavirus cases in the country was about 15 000, but by Sunday this had increased to 19 100. He said the agreement reached to extend the Covid-19 Temporary Employer / Employee Relief Scheme (Ters) to employees affected by level 4, also hints at an extention.
With only take-aways allowed, this is bad news for restaurants, as well as for the alcohol industry, which is subjected to a total ban on all sales.
W Cape braces for worse 3rd wave
The Western Cape is revising its third wave countermeasures, as it appears that the wave is worse than initially predicted. This is as a result of the Delta variant which has rapidly become the dominant variant in the latest infections in the province. It's also present in the Garden Route.
Its appearance in new infections rose from 8% to about 50% in the week leading up to 30 June, according to the latest genome sequencing data from National Genomic Surveillance SA (NGS-SA). The information was shared on Thursday 1 July by public health specialist Prof Mary-Ann Davies, during the weekly digital conference hosted by Premier Alan Winde.
Davies said the SA Coronavirus Modelling Consortium (SACMC) has declared its projections for the third wave, done in April, not applicable anymore and is updating its predictions. The consortium's prediction of a less severe third wave was based on the Beta variant's behaviour. However, actual hospital admissions in all the large provinces are exceeding projections. It is only in Gauteng that the actual admissions have not yet reached the predicted levels, because a much worse third wave had been predicted for that province. "We are planning for a third wave that could be as severe as the second, but with capacity to scale up further," said Davies.
She said the symptoms caused by the Delta variant are similar to a common cold - headache, sore throat and runny nose.
330 new cases per day
The Garden Route has reported 2 311 new Covid-19 cases in the week up to Tuesday 6 July, a daily average of 330.
District Health Spokesperson Nadia Ferreira said from Monday 28 June to Monday 5 July, the district recorded 34 Covid-19 deaths.
Most of the district hospitals experience a huge increase in Covid-19 admissions, with Mossel Bay Hospital at the top of the list.
"George Hospital also reports a large increase," said Ferreira. "The hospital currently has 44 Covid-19 patients of whom 15 are in high care. All sub-districts are de-escalating non-essential services to cope with the increased load."
As at Tuesday 6 July, the district had 3 686 recorded active cases, with George the worst hit: George 1 515, Mossel Bay 1 191, Knysna 343, Oudtshoorn 255, Hessequa 199, Bitou 113 and Kannaland 70.
The genome sequencing data shows that the Delta variant's increase now closely matches newly reported cases. The black line represents new cases and the green area the Delta infections.
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